Liquor industry turnaround has been part of the wine enterprises may be more than expected recovery -douke

Liquor industry turnaround has been part of the wine enterprises may be more than expected recovery process picture source: visual China at home, the new year, you liquor will be your drinks in the necessary option? But after a few years to adjust the depth of the liquor business, the Chinese new year this year to restore some courage. This is not only reflected in the liquor generally pre 2015 the performance of listed companies notice, but also in the high-end brand in order to control the goods, the Spring Festival approaching, the price reduction of subsidies and other measures of collective very price. Two-way positive impact, in the recent huge market shocks, food and beverage sector continued to outperform the market, in January fell third, relative income highlights. Among them, the liquor plate monthly decline is the smallest (-14.13%), outstanding performance. As of February 4th, has disclosed the results of letters in 2015, the liquor industry forecast of eight listed companies, in addition to Tuopai willing (600702.SH) express in 2015 operating income fell 19.99%, net profit fell 49.7%, only 6 million 735 thousand and 200 yuan, the remaining seven companies were pre performance. Among them, Luzhou Lao Jiao (000568.SZ) estimated annual net profit growth of 52%-70%, up to 1 billion 337 million yuan -14.96 million yuan; Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) net profit growth in 40%-60%, 498 million yuan -5.7 yuan; Jinshiyuan (603369.SH) revenue and net profit year-on-year growth of 0-10%, net profit is expected to be 646 million yuan -7.1 yuan; Kouzijiao (603589.SH) expected net profit 422 million yuan, an increase of 40%. *ST alcoholics (000799.SZ), *ST wells (600779.SH), *ST Tai Tai (000995.SZ) collective losses, net profit is expected to be 80 million yuan -9600 million, 90 million yuan and 6 million 500 thousand yuan. In addition, the Yanghe River shares (002304.SZ) in the three quarterly forecast in 2015 net profit growth of 5%-15%, up to 4 billion 700 million yuan -52 billion. It is worth noting that, SWS Hongyuan securities latest grassroots research forecast, Furui (000596.SZ), Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ) annual net profit growth of about 11%, 6% and 2%, respectively. From the magnitude and causes of the pre performance point of view, the liquor companies in sales have varying degrees of recovery. Among them, only the current margin and *ST wells respectively emphasize the growth of performance, due to the decline in financial costs and increase in investment income and disposal of assets, the rest of the company focused on the increase in operating income. While Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, the Yanghe River shares and other large companies, although the growth rate is low, but the volume is larger, the absolute value of the increase is still more than most of the small and medium-sized companies. In 2016, the liquor recovery continues, and leading liquor companies to more aggressive posture to maintain prices: Kweichow Moutai artificially delayed February and March contract arrangement plan, after the delivery of the current Moutai limited national common stock, terminal sales exceeded last year of Wuliangye;

白酒行业转机已现 部分酒企复苏进程可能超预期 图片来源:视觉中国   在家过年的你,白酒会否是你酒水饮料中的必选项?而经过几年深度调整的白酒企业,今年过年恢复了些胆气。   这不仅表现在白酒上市公司2015年业绩预告的普遍预增,还在于临近春节中高端品牌以控货、减补贴、提价等各种措施集体挺价。   双向利好影响,在近期市场巨幅震荡中,食品饮料板块持续跑赢大盘,一月份涨跌幅排行榜第三,相对收益凸显。其中白酒子板块一月跌幅最小(-14.13%),表现突出。   截至2月4日,已经披露2015年业绩快报、预报的白酒主业上市公司有八家,除沱牌舍得(600702.SH)快报2015年营业收入同比减少19.99%,净利润同比下滑49.7%,仅673.52万元之外,其余七家公司均为业绩预增。   其中,泸州老窖(000568.SZ)预计全年净利增长52%-70%,达13.37亿元-14.96亿元;山西汾酒(600809.SH)净利增幅在40%-60%,为4.98亿元-5.7亿元;今世缘(603369.SH)营收和净利同比均增长0-10%,净利预计为6.46亿元-7.1亿元;口子窖(603589.SH)预计净利4.22亿元,同比增长40%。   *ST酒鬼(000799.SZ)、*ST水井(600779.SH)、*ST皇台(000995.SZ)则集体扭亏,净利润分别预计为8000万元-9600万元、9000万元和650万元。   另有洋河股份(002304.SZ)在三季报中预测2015年全年净利增长5%-15%,高达47亿元-52亿元。   值得注意的是,申万宏源证券最新的草根调研预测,古井贡酒(000596.SZ)、贵州茅台(600519.SH)、五粮液(000858.SZ)全年净利增长分别约为11%、6%和2%。   从业绩预增幅度及原因来看,白酒上市公司的销售已经出现不同程度的回升。其中,仅今世缘和*ST水井分别强调业绩增长因财务费用下降和投资收益增加和资产处置,其余公司均重点表明营业收入增长所致。而贵州茅台、五粮液、洋河股份等大公司虽然增幅偏低,但体量较大,增加的绝对值仍然超过大部分中小公司。   进入2016年,白酒的回升态势得到延续,并且龙头白酒企业以更激进的态势维护价格上涨:贵州茅台人为延后安排二三月合同计划,限制发货后目前茅台全国普遍缺货,终端销售已超去年春节;五粮液在2015年提价的基础上下调经销商补贴,加大挺价力度;泸州老窖则暂停国窖1573、窖龄和特曲供货,控量保价;洋河股份直接提高海之蓝、天之蓝产品结算价和终端零售价。   有机构通过草根调研渠道跟踪白酒产品的动销、价格情况了解到,白酒行业整体销售趋势强于其他品类产品。而白酒企业的上述挺价措施效果明显,一批价稳中有升,经销商拿货意愿旺盛,且近期各地极寒天气对白酒消费有拉动作用。   这同时证明目前白酒厂商控货对市场价格的调控是有效的,厂商对渠道控制力正在恢复。另一种解读则意味着白酒行业春节旺季销售预期可能已经基本完成,春节前一周控货已经不影响业绩目标。   也有经销商对春节白酒动销仍持谨慎乐观态度,认为会比去年有增长,但对增幅仍然比较保守。   就现有的情况来看,从投资角度出发,多家白酒类上市公司利润预增已经表明2015年白酒行业业绩已出现转机。2016年大众消费升级和国企改革红利,有望成为白酒行业经营持续转好、业绩稳步回升的主要驱动力。而春节消费旺季来临以及节后经销商补库存需求,将成为优质品牌白酒短期业绩催化剂。当然,受春节提前、财富缩水、消费低迷因素影响,对于龙头公司增速不宜预期过高。   而站在行业发展角度,机构普遍认为,白酒企业经历三年时间调整,已经逐步走出销售大幅下降时期,行业调整进入第二阶段:企业逐渐站稳脚跟,时刻等待反守为攻,可以比较从容地重整市场。但从外部需求、人口结构、渠道调整的角度,判断全面复苏为时尚早。细分到企业,则仍处于分化复苏的通道,由于消费升级、品牌集中、库存去化等因素,部分名优酒企的复苏进程可能超预期。   至于更远的未来,随着需求端消费的升级,白酒消费品种逐步向100元-300元价格区间靠拢,而在城市化速度放慢以及健康消费理念普及背景下,白酒消费增量有限,行业整体未来仍是结构调整,高端挤压中端。因此重塑品牌和价格,重整渠道价格乱象可能是酒企今年春节要考虑的工作之一。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: