More than ten cities will restart the purchase of experts said the intensity of regulation is not as-splitit

Ten city will restart the purchase of experts said the regulation intensity is less than the last round of this year, first-tier cities and second tier hot city, ring first-tier cities home prices rose steadily. After Xiamen, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Kunshan recently have to restart the purchase of the policy, the rise in prices under pressure, is expected to restart the purchase of the city will be more than ten. Experts believe that the current round of purchase policy efforts generally not as good as the previous round, limited effect. The second is not only Hefei’s "four little dragons" purchase policy in September 28th, close to Shanghai, Kunshan issued to strengthen the management of the real estate market implementation opinion, non permanent residents in Suzhou to apply for the purchase of second homes, should be provided since before the date of the purchase of 2 years in Suzhou city has paid more than 1 years of personal income tax payment certificate or social insurance (social insurance) payment certificate. The policy was also the continuation of the restriction policy introduced by Suzhou in August. The introduction of the restriction policy clear, in the main city area, has 1 or more housing units and non city residence households, shall not purchase new housing and second-hand housing; the city residence households have 2 and above housing, no new purchase of new housing. For different housing demand, take differentiated measures to protect the just need and improve housing, to combat speculative housing. Together with the previously introduced restriction policy of Xiamen and Suzhou, at present, this year prices rose the most rapid second tier four tigers (Xiamen, Suzhou, Hefei, Nanjing, Hefei) is not only the introduction of restriction policy, so the recent purchase of Hefei policy also calls up. Before Nanjing, Hangzhou announced in September 18th after the purchase of less than 10 days, again to upgrade regulatory policy, since September 28th, Hangzhou rising loan fund two suites Shoufu ratio, the proportion of commercial housing loans, two suites down payment home buyers pause. According to the announcement, the two suites provident fund loans and commercial loans down payment ratio will not be less than 50%. The industry expects, after Hangzhou and Nanjing, the future of some housing prices rising pressure second tier hot city will also restart the purchase limit. Analysis of E-House Research Institute think tank Research Center Director Yan Yuejin on the "First Financial Daily", from the purchase of both versions and ideas, mainly follow four ideas, one is the pressure of the city housing prices first out of the purchase of the policy, the housing prices in the country rose among the top ten of the city, the policy level is most likely tighten. Two is the city compared to suburban prices rise pressure, will tighten first. The possibility of the core area of the city’s subsequent tightening of hot line will be relatively large, while the rural and suburban areas is not tightened, it also reflects the principle of local conditions to inventory. Three is a new house rising pressure greater, more likely to tighten the second hand housing. Four is the possibility of foreign household registration by policy control is greater than the local household registration, especially in some big cities in real estate, a lot of foreign fried tenants. Accordingly, the follow-up is expected to restart the purchase of the city of Wuhan, including Hefei, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Fuzhou, Dongguan, Wuxi, Shijiazhuang, Xiamen, Nanjing and the Hangzhou, and Suzhou, the purchase of second tier hot restart city and the surrounding city ring line will be more than ten. For example, the Zhengzhou property market continues to heat up, Zhengzhou City Housing Authority statistics, August.

十余城市将重启限购 专家称调控力度不及上一轮今年以来,一线城市和二线热点城市、环一线城市房价节节走高。继厦门、苏州之后,近日杭州、南京、昆山也纷纷重启限购政策,在房价上涨压力之下,预计未来重启限购的城市会超过十个。专家认为,本轮限购政策力度普遍不如上一轮,作用有限。二线“四小龙”仅剩合肥未出限购政策9月28日,紧邻上海的昆山市发布加强房地产市场管理实施意见,非苏州市户籍居民家庭申请购买第2套住房时,应提供自购房之日起前2年内在苏州市累计缴纳1年及以上个人所得税缴纳证明或社会保险(城镇社会保险)缴纳证明。此次政策也是此前8月苏州出台的限购政策的延续。南京市出台的限购政策明确,在主城区范围内,已拥有1套及以上住房的非本市户籍居民家庭,不得再新购新建商品住房和二手住房;拥有2套及以上住房的本市户籍居民家庭,不得再新购新建商品住房。针对不同的购房需求,采取差别化措施,保护刚需和改善性购房,打击投机购房。加上此前已经出台限购政策的厦门和苏州,目前,今年以来房价上涨最为迅猛的二线四小龙(厦门、苏州、合肥、南京),仅剩合肥未出台限购政策,因此近期合肥限购政策出台的呼声亦随之高涨。在南京之前,杭州在9月18日宣布限购后不到10天,再次升级调控政策,自9月28日起,杭州同步上调公积金贷款二套房首付比例、商业性住房贷款二套房首付比例、暂停购房入户。根据公告,二套房公积金贷款和商业贷款的首付比例将不低于50%。业内预计,在杭州和南京之后,未来一些房价上涨压力较大的二线热点城市也将重启限购。易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进对《第一财经日报》分析,从目前限购的既有版本和思路来看,主要遵循四个思路,一是房价上涨压力大的城市先出限购政策,即在全国房价涨幅位居前十的城市,政策层面最有可能收紧。二是市区相比郊区房价上涨压力大,会先收紧。后续热点二线城市的核心区域收紧的可能性会比较大,而郊区和郊县等区域则不会收紧,这也体现去库存因地制宜的原则。三是新房上涨压力更大,比二手房的收紧可能性会更大。四是外地户籍受政策管制的可能性大于本地户籍,尤其是部分大城市的炒房中,很多是外来的炒房客。据此,后续有望重启限购的城市包括合肥、武汉、郑州、天津、福州、东莞、无锡、石家庄,加上已有的厦门、南京、杭州、苏州,本轮重启限购的二线热点城市及环一线周边城市将超过十个。例如,郑州楼市持续升温,郑州市房管局统计数据称,8月份该市商品房销售23471套(间),同比上涨109.65%,销售均价突破一万元。8月该市新建商品住宅价格指数环比上涨5.6%,位居全国各大城市榜首,郑州多数市民已难以承受高房价之重。河南省委常委、郑州市委书记马懿近日表示,郑州将加强房地产调控,优化商品房供给结构,稳控房价,促进房地产业健康平稳发展。力度不及上一轮中原地产首席市场分析师张大伟早在2014年二线城市纷纷取消限购政策的时候,就认为一线城市和包括厦门、南京在内的十个左右二线城市不应该取消限购,因为这些城市的库存本来就很小,土地供应严重不足。这些城市的政策本来应该“一直高压”,而不是去库存的问题,但当时就是一刀切,把它们限购政策都放开了。“其实当时就可以预料到,它们放开后,再加上信贷这么松,这些城市房价必然会爆发的。”张大伟说。他认为,即使是上一轮限购政策执行期间,不少城市的房价都经历了快速上涨。更何况此次这些二线热点城市重启限购,力度尚不及上一轮,因此效果将大打折扣。比如,上一轮的限购政策中,对外地户籍买房,至少都有缴纳一年社保的规定。但本轮杭州、南京、苏州对非本市居民购买第一套房,都没有社保缴纳的要求,苏州非本市居民,还可以购买二套房。而对本地户籍,多数城市则未加以严格限制。张大伟说,很多城市都是在房价已经差不多翻了一倍的情况下才重启限购政策,时间点已经晚了,导致调控力度偏弱的主要原因在于,目前其他行业整体疲软,因此宏观经济尚需要楼市作为支柱产业拉动,这也导致房地产调控不敢一次到位,因此各地在出台政策的时候都是“挤牙膏、口号式”调控。他表示,这一轮二线城市收紧楼市调控政策是因为市场开始恐慌,涨幅刷新历史纪录,而出现这一恐慌的主要根源还是这一轮去库存并未因城施策,在本来库存就不多的城市执行了全面宽松政策,在资金潮影响下,市场出现了局部城市失控的现象。“但目前的楼市调控依然没有抓住本轮房价暴涨的根源。”张大伟说,现在房价爆发的原因是资金潮下的资产荒,导致购房者出现了恐慌。“未来要么是降低资金潮,要么是增加优质资产,或者降低购房者恐慌,三方面都需要加码政策。”信贷不能只投入到房地产,要有政策约束让信贷进入实体经济,土地供应必须充足,才能给市场平稳的预期。更多精彩内容欢迎搜索关注微信公众号:腾讯财经(financeapp)。相关的主题文章: