UBS devaluation pressure or increased but not below 6.8 sugus

UBS: RMB devaluation pressure or increased but not below 6.8 Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide Sina Hong Kong APP: real time market exclusive reference stocks also worth the investment? What’s the problem? Where is the future of the way out? Sina launched the "Hong Kong Hong Kong stocks as well as unattractive" discussion, with a rational and constructive attitude, welcome attention to Hong Kong stocks, concern of the capital market, Hong Kong stocks together for suggestions, seek the Hong Kong stock market tomorrow. Please to hkstock_biz@sina. UBS report pointed out that given the pressure of capital outflows continued, the dollar is likely to further appreciation, the future may be exacerbated by the pressure of devaluation. However, it is likely that the decision will not allow the yuan to depreciate against the dollar by more than 6.8, which can better manage exchange rate expectations and avoid major trade partners. UBS pointed out that the recent devaluation of the RMB may not have a significant impact on the current real export growth. Although the renminbi has depreciated by 7.3% against the dollar over the past year, the trade weighted basket of currencies has only recently seen a significant fall in value (in the past 4-5 months by 5-6%). During this period, the actual export volume is also improved, but given the exchange rate depreciation on exports are conduction delay, the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate may not be in the two quarter of the actual export volume to pick up immediately have a significant boost. In addition, the impact of the devaluation of the number of exports to the export price and the final consumer is not clear. Therefore, the global and U.S. demand is likely to rise after the recent improvement in the actual export volume behind the more important reason. UBS said, considering the future of the dollar may rise further, the RMB devaluation of space still exists in more than 6.6-6.7, but that the exchange rate is more likely to occur in two-way volatility, which mainly depends on the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies. There are some key policy point may lead to the central parity of RMB pricing and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates obviously: at the beginning of the September G20 meeting, at the beginning of October RMB formally joined the SDR, at the beginning of the November U.S. presidential election, and the interest rate the Fed may December. It is expected that the central bank will continue to maintain the discretion of the exchange rate policy, while maintaining the stability of the RMB against a basket of currencies while taking into account the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. Although the devaluation of the RMB may be exacerbated in the four quarter, but we believe that the end of the RMB against the U.S. dollar should not exceed 6.8. Enter the Sina financial stocks] discussion相关的主题文章: